Sunday, April 17, 2011

The Generative Economy and Village 2.0

I recently posted two new concepts to my website. The first I am calling "The Generative Economy" or "Generative Economic Transformation." Generative Economic Transformation provides a framework and a process to understand how to preserve what is working in our economy and simultaneously reverse what is not by addressing their root causes. It is generative in the sense that it transforms our economy from the inside out by changing the code at its core.

The second is an idea entitled "Village 2.0," which is a particular case of this broader theory.
Village 2.0 suggests that a technology-driven shift in economic opportunity is possible. Businesses, and groups of workers, will be able to relocate their entire operations to the rural communities of their choice with little or no disruption to their supply chain, access to customers or workforce. Interested entrepreneurs and specialists will be able to start their new companies almost wherever they want. Opportunities for rural economic development will expand greatly.

You can find them at:
www.generativeeconomy.com
www.village20.com

Please let me know if you have comments or feedback.

Monday, September 06, 2010


Thinking a Global Thought (Intentionally)

The picture to the right is a graphical rendering of the global internet. It is looking more and more like the synapses of a global "brain." When we remember that the internet as we know it is about 15 years old, the speed of its growth is really startling.

We can only assume that it will continue to grow quickly, adding more and more nodes with the interconnections between those nodes increasing exponentially faster. The internet is allowing global coordination in real time, at least among those with an internet connection.

What would we find if we analyzed what "thoughts" we were thinking as a globe? I think there would be an overwhelming number of thoughts about sex (via the internet porn industry), many thoughts about movies and entertainment given the increasing bandwidth used for streaming media (would these be equivalent to dreams?), thoughts about current disasters in the news, etc. What would file sharing represent in the global brain? Replication and redundancy of ideas and information?

How many thoughts we would find about hope, beauty, love, truth, spirit and the divine? I would suspect that these "thoughts" would be dwarfed by the baser thoughts described above. If we considered humanity as a single organism, we would find that our "monkey" brains were running the show while higher thoughts were taking a back seat.

This is unlikely to change radically, but there is definitely room for improvement, especially once we become conscious of this situation and begin to think about our collective "thoughts" intentionally. This is like internet-connected humanity becoming collectively self-conscious. We can think about thinking and then shift the balance of our thoughts, striving to think more thoughts that elevate rather than debase us.

Given our capitalist system that strives to exploit and fill needs (e.g. if you had more hair you would find the mate you want, if you had a bigger car you would be more satisfied with life, if you wear a certain style of clothing you will have more friends), there is a lot of human energy going towards keeping our collective thoughts focused on our baser fears and insecurities. These systems and structures perpetuate what is.

But the wonderful thing about an open internet is the opportunity for those who would like something different to find each other and self-organize. At this early stage, this would be like our collective conscious striving to coalesce a faint and diffuse thought into something firmer. Like an artist or author or inventor struggling to find the connections, to let the idea rise to the surface, our collective brain can think new thoughts.

How many people thinking and connecting around a idea would constitute a new global thought? Good question! I don't think we know yet, but those of us who are interested can begin to experiment.

We can use the tools of viral marketing and social media tools to connect and track our connections. We can use web search tools like google to track the number of mentions of an idea and the network of citations. We can watch thoughts arise and fade away, or we can watch themripple around the globe, or perhaps even crystallize and synchronize globally, like a powerful "a ha!" insight.

For those of us who hope for a better future, with more beauty, more abundance, more spirit and more heart, let's connect and try to send these new thoughts around the globe. Let's be sophisticated and intentional. Let's understand how this new global brain of ours works and see if we can elevate our collective consciousness. Let's use crowdfunding mechanisms to raise the money necessary to powerfully unleash new thoughts, interrupting the steady stream of base thoughts currently dominating our collective consciousness.

What if we were to crowdfund simultaneous ads on all the major news stations and newspapers around the globe reminding people to value their friends, to help someone in need, to stop and smell the roses? Even just a few thoughts like this could be tremendously powerful because it would help people to WAKE UP! from our collective nightmare(s). It could make them conscious of alternatives and choices they may have forgotten they have.

We might find out that this level of intervention is not needed. Perhaps ads in a few regions might be enough to trigger a new global thought. Let's experiment and find out what works. We have the tools now to do this, and the tools to evaluate our success.

Let me know if you want to try it! We can use KickStarter to make it happen.





Saturday, May 15, 2010

Gunter Pauli: The Blue Economy

Gunter Pauli has recently published a new book entitled The Blue Economy. One of the first public talks he gave was presented May 6, 2010 in Santa Fe, NM as part of the Permaculture Credit Union's 10th Anniversary Celebration. The Blue Economy describes 100 business and technology innovations that have the potential to heal our planet and create millions of green jobs. Fascinating!

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

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An education model for the future

Our existing education model is even more outdated than our electricity grid model. I heard an analogy once that stuck with me. No one expects to fly in a plane that looks like the original Wright brothers plane a century later, but we expect students to learn in environments that look exactly like classrooms from a century ago. The contrast is striking. Why would we continue to think this is right way to educate students for our modern world?

There is one key problems that I would like to address in this post:

How can we ensure that every child on the planet has access to the latest and most useful knowledge taught by the best teachers in the world?

This seems like an impossible task, and it is, but we can get much, much closer than most people might imagine. Here is how it might happen.
  1. We live in a world now connected by the internet. Of course many around the globe do not have access, but that number is shrinking daily and I think we can expect that trend to continue. This makes it possible to connect teachers in one location to students in another instantly.
  2. We can assess teachers and teaching methodologies around the globe based on subjective student rankings and the objective test results and performance of their students. Combining this data with moderately detailed demographic information from the students and controlling it for contextual factors like community wealth, etc., we can begin to identify who the best teachers are for different types of students. This type of exercise is now standard practice in the marketing world. Car companies know that if I like granola and have a college degree, I am likely to want to drive a Prius or Subaru Outback (for example).
  3. We can use this interconnectivity and this detailed information on what teachers and methodologies work best for different students to put every student in touch with the best teacher for them regardless of location. Because of the nearly infinite capacity of the internet, any number of students can be assigned to a given teacher unlike a typical classroom.
  4. I am sure some people, especially teachers, are balking at this point because where is the human interaction and teacher to student contact that is so important? I would agree that a human presence for guidance, answering questions, etc. is critical. That is why students would still be in classrooms, but instead of a teacher assigned to each, a teaching assistant would be assigned to each. This assistant would be trained in pedagogy and child behavior and development and some level of appropriate content knowledge. This assistant would follow up after the instruction from the leader teacher, likely in a remote location, with activities, exercises, etc. as designed by the lead teacher to be effective. Some activities would involve the whole group socially to develop teamwork skills, etc. and others would be highly individualized using computers to provide perfectly paced examples that adjust to the students needs and learning curve.
  5. We know from excellent service businesses like Enterprise Rent A Car, etc. that it is possible to have a large organization and control service at the customer level in a way that provides a nearly uniform level of excellence. These techniques could be applied to this education model to ensure great support from the teaching assistants.
  6. This model reduces the need to find millions upon millions of masterful teachers to provide equitable education for the world. Instead we may only need a few thousand, supported by millions of teaching assistants who would not need the same level of global mastery.
  7. This model also supports highly individualized learning, ironically, because instead of having to teach to a class of 20 or 30, the teaching assistants can run students through a range of group and individual activities with constant feedback at the student level as described above. If a student outgrows a certain class by demonstrating an aptitude or need that deviates sufficiently from the other students, or proves difficult for the teaching assistant to sufficiently support, they would be moved to a different, more appropriate class of students. This could happen multiple times a year if necessary and as a result would not result in stigma for students. It would reflect the wide range of abilities and interests out there.
  8. In addition, this system would also make it possible to quickly disseminate new innovations in pedagogy or content so that the entire would can learn quickly and there would be greatly reduce delays in information dissemination. I think the delays in pedagogy dissemination are probably the longest know since teachers currently go through school only once and pick up most of their tools then, with some support from continuing education. This would be continuing education on steroids.
  9. Finally, all of this should be linked to the real world needs of today's world of work. Businesses, non profit and government agencies would all feed information on their workforce needs into a global system. Students would have chances all throughout school to test out different career options every step of the way. As they find things they are interested that correspond with projected workforce needs at the time of their graduation, they will be routed to the appropriate classes. This also may change multiple times a year if necessary. An underlying map of competencies ensures that competencies are tracked in chunks that allow students to balance the needs to explore their interests with the need to make consistent progress towards large blocks of skills and knowledge.
That is just a rough sketch, but I hope it is enough to inspire you to believe that it is possible to make speedy progress towards the goal of great education for everyone. Let's do what we can to move in this direction, or please propose your own alternative! Together we can design and implement a better system.


Sunday, March 29, 2009

Who gets paid what and why?

There is tremendous public outrage these days against the bonuses and excesses of executives at AIG and financial institutions like it. I feel the same way. It is just the most extreme example of the tremendous disparities in pay between top executives and regular working folks within companies. The injustice of these disparities is all the more keen now because these financial institutions have received billions in taxpayer money from those same regular working folks and the executive continue to receive the same outrageous bonuses!

For me this begs the question of how we got into this situation and what we can do to prevent it from happening again. That’s a big question, of course, but I have a few ideas.

I would like to broaden the question to why certain people and professions earn the pay that they do. There are a number of perfectly reasonable justifications, for example:

  • Some professions require long and extensive training. It is reasonable to pay people more who have deferred their earnings to pursue this education in an amount equivalent to the net present value of those deferred earnings
  • Some work is less desirable than other work and people must be paid more to do it (e.g. mining, garbage collecting).

But these reasons do not adequately explain why executives at financial institutions were making so much money. Nor does it explain why teachers, police officers, and firemen earn so little in comparison.

I’ve got a couple theories that seem to explain more of the story:

  • Barriers to entry/Privilege: The best professions often have significant barriers to entry that prevent the less advantaged or less fortunate from joining them. These barriers could be the normal barriers of socio-economic status, or they can be explicit attempts to constrain supply and thus increase pay (e.g. the time and money requirements to become a real estate agent), or hidden biases and unspoken preferences that are deeply ingrained in society.
  • The Proximity to Money Theory: I would propose that the closer you are to money, the more money you earn. For example, if you charge a 1% fee on a financial transaction, that seems reasonable. But if you consider that the transaction is for $50 billion, and that 1% equals $500 million, a lot of money can quickly get siphoned off to those closely involved. As our financial system has been consolidated and globalized, the size of transactions has increased dramatically, which makes it possible for more and more money to be diverted to a relatively small number of people, consolidating wealth. In the past these fees would have gone to local bank officials, etc. and recycled in local economies. Now it goes to a few global officials who spend their days in the high-rises of New York or London and their weekends in Monte Carlo and their private island off the coast of Thailand. 

    So it becomes easier to see why executives at financial institutions earn so much: there is no one closer to more money than them! This also helps to explain why teachers earn so little. Education is very far from money in time and space. Children earn no money and have no money of their own, and will not earn much money for 20 or more years. This makes it hard to understand and explain exactly how much value and money teaching creates. Obviously education is an investment in the future and creates tremendous value, but the short term perspective of our society makes it hard to account for it.
  • Workplace culture: This is really a corollary to the first theory. People that are very aggressive in pursuing their financial self interest will tend to be drawn to those professions that allow them to make a lot of money quickly. As people tend to gather in professions like investment banking, the culture of those institutions gets tainted with that same greed and aggression. I have heard many stories from friends and colleagues about the caustic, hostile and intense culture in the (formerly) most lucrative financial institutions. Anyone not out to make a lot of money for themselves or with an emphasis on other human values is bound to choose a different profession in exchange for a more pleasant working environment or be forced out. This creates a negative reinforcing cycle that ends up creating extremely aggressive and hostile institutions, both inside and out, over time.
  • Rewarding the impression of success and value: There is also an implicit assumption in western culture that the people who make a lot of money are more important and possibly more valuable. This interacts badly with the workplace culture effect described above to result in increasing status for those who are making lots of money by being more greedy and aggressive. This perverse rewarding of values that would normally be quite low on our list of virtues starts to turn the world upside and is really a shame. This draws in talented people to this system of greed who would otherwise be inclined to do work with more social value. Talented and successful people get used to following the path mapped out for them by social rewards. In the same way one might pursue an A+ in school, these people see that pursuing jobs that will earn them a lot of money are the next step in their path of accomplishments. A big paycheck = A+. Then to survive in this culture of greed and aggression they must adapt or be spit out. Some adapt and some are spit out, but the result is that this system of greed attracts and retains those who are most aggressive and most talented, which is a not just a shame but a true tragedy.

    (As an aside, I am pretty sure a similarly negative reinforcing cycle is at play with our elected leaders. We do not seem to be electing the people most of us would most want to see at the helm. I will save a discussion of those dynamics for another time.)

So the system of greed that gets created keeps pursuing more and more money and higher and higher returns until outright fraud or ingenious deceptions are required to keep moving forward (e.g. Enron or the collateralized debt obligation industry laced with toxic subprime mortgages). Then the bubble bursts and we end up with the situation we have today.

So what is the alternative? I certainly don’t have the whole story, but I can see at least two key leverage points.

Figure out how to value longer term investments further from money: If we could convincingly evaluate the return on investment of educating our children, for example, we would probably be comfortable paying teachers significantly more. When we could see that the ROI and reward to risk ratio of paying to have a great teacher is on par (or probably better) than investing in a fancy new hedge fund, money will naturally flow in the direction of education and away from these hedge funds, most of which do not create anything of real value anyway. Certainly not enough to justify their returns and fame.

Tax financial transactions to slow the movement of money: I am not the first to propose this idea, but I like it alot. In today’s world, tremendously huge amount of wealth can transferred around the globe in a matter of a few milliseconds. On the other hand, labor and tangible capital move much, much more slowly. This creates dislocations and disinvestment that promotes huge instability. The fickle whims of global investors chasing return can move their money daily and as a result there is no patient capital that will see projects through to completion. This is very destructive and foolish. Especially in an era of Madoff Ponzi schemes and smoke and mirrors hedge funds, money can easily be siphoned off to institutions promising higher returns but who are not able to truly deliver. Real return on investment in the real world takes significant time. Putting a small tax on global financial transactions would slow the movement of wealth and begin to align financial capital flows more closely with labor and tangible capital flows.

Develop a new societal relationship to wealth: Another way to break this cycle is to not equate wealth with social value. It is a very deep assumption that those who have made more money have created an equivalent amount of social value but I believe this is false. More often major wealth is an indication of ruthlessness and greed. Certainly there are a few scattered wonderful people who were at the right place and right time and hit the jackpot (whether it is Powerball or a new startup), but these folks are the exception not the rule. I am sure that a comprehensive scientific study would confirm this belief of mine. Hopefully one day such a study will be done.

Imagine if we had a strongly progressive tax system that asymptotically taxed earnings so that it was impossible to earn more than $1M, for example. We can debate what the right ceiling is, but I would argue for a lower ceiling for reasons I will describe more here.

  • Democratizing money and the good life: If no individual could earn more than $1M, this would be more than plenty for any one person. (I believe it is about $40,000 is where happiness starts to be inversely related to income.) Of course, there may be business opportunities or desires to create situations or environments that would require more money than that. But if no one person could do it themselves we would be forced to work together. In an era of the internet and the potential for global cooperation, there is a tremendous opportunity to pool resources to promote mutually beneficial projects that would not have been possible in the past. We can pool resources to develop new communities, to undertake new research, to start new businesses, etc. There are no longer significant inefficiencies associated with this kind of collaboration and in fact it would probably be a good system to reinforce that projects generate real social value rather than be ego driven vanity projects. Vetting by a group would strengthen ideas and project designs.
  • Moderating the pace of our economy: Our economy is prone to overheating, creating booms and busts. I think it would be a good rather than bad thing to put a little sand in the gears by limiting how much anyone could make. People often say that such a progressive tax system would be a disincentive to work, innovation and progress. I disagree. I believe it would reintroduce the wisdom that comes from slowing down and taking more time to be thoughtful. To do the right things, not more things. More activity is not intrinsically valuable. Activity can be destructive, and in a world in which our fossil fuel energy stores are being depleted and the environment is at the breaking point with regard to carbon in the atmosphere, pollution and overharvesting, it is probably a good thing to slow down the whole system. This would slow down the overall economy, creating more time for people to spend time with family, friends and to work in their local communities on intrinsically satisfying projects and plans. Also, curbing the green instinct would be socially valuable and a secondary benefit to slowing the economy.

Thoughts? Comments? Reactions? I’d love to hear what you think.

Is the stimulus enough?

I believe the current federal investment in energy efficiency and renewable energy will prove to be an underinvestment we will regret later. The entire economy is stagnating and there are very few industries that will be growing over the next 5 years. We have passed the point at which energy will only become more and more expensive and this will create a drain on the economy for years to come if we do not address it. Yes, President Obama has put unprecedented amount of money into a transition to a future of energy independence and infinite renewable energy that will serve us well, but from where I sit I think we probably need 20 or more times the amount of money that has already been pledged. This is not a scientific estimate (although I would very much like to have one done), but my gut estimate of the magnitude of the underinvestment. It looks like others agree with my assessment generally. 

We should take the opportunity presented by the next 5 years to develop the new infrastructure we will need to provide the affordable energy to get our economy going again, and sustainably for the long haul. Any delay in making this investment will only create more costs and slow our recovery. Every dollar spent on energy efficiency and renewable energy has a tremendous return on investment. We are not talking about wasting any money: this is a smart investment. Just like a corporation that under invests in its future will be overtaken by its competitors, we need to be bold and do what is necessary sooner rather than later. There is no use beating around the bush or delaying the inevitable.

The same is true for New Mexico in general. If we do not invest in our future today, we will soon fall further behind California, New Jersey and other states despite our better renewable resource potential. There is a danger we will be colonized by out of state companies from these other places that will siphon off the lion’s share of the revenue, rather than growing our own industry that will return maximum benefits to our citizens.

New Mexico is challenged by its small population and relative poverty. Our state budget is small enough that making a major investment in a future of renewable energy is a much more substantial hardship than for a rich and populous state like California or New Jersey. Despite our better location and developable renewable energy resources, there is a chance we will fall behind and fail to benefit as much as would otherwise be possible.

The example of Germany provides a good contrast. By instituting an aggressive feed in tariff for renewable energy, they now have the strongest renewable energy economy in the world despite having very poor solar energy potential compared with New Mexico and most of the United States generally. There are studies that have determined that this investment has more than paid for itself in new job creation and new economic activity, etc.

I hope that we are able to develop the confidence to make similarly substantial, wise and productive investments in our renewable energy economy in New Mexico

An Intuitive Electronic Music Interface

I have been a lover of music my whole life. I have often wished that I had been more disciplined as a kid and had learned to play an instrument well. But I didn’t, and now I still lack that discipline and being older it is that much harder to train my hands to do what I want them to do. This has been frustrating.

So I have tried to think of shortcuts to quality musical expression that require not require developing physical virtuosity. I want to make music, I want it to be good, and I want it to be easy.

My most frequent ideas revolve around electronic music, mostly because electronic music tools generally allow one to record and layer sounds and tracks piece by piece in a way that does not require the same performance skills. They are forgiving tools in the sense that you can try and retry different options until something sounds good, and not be limited by my ability to perform a complete piece, which would be beyond my skill. Much like a word processor makes it easier to write more easily when compared with pen and paper, these electronic music tools allow the same kind of revision and editing.

The downside is that music making can become a technical, dead and tedious process of working in front of a computer. For example, I have tried using FL Studio and find the software powerful, but challenging to enjoy as a process of music making. So perhaps I am looking for something half way between Guitar Hero and FL Studio. :)

Here is my idea of what I would like. If I was independently wealthy and didn’t have anything else to do, I would make it myself. Perhaps by putting here I can find some people to help me, or maybe someone will steal the idea and make it for me.

Essential elements:

  • A multi-touch enabled big screen to control the performance
  • All of the music generators, samplers, etc. to create sounds
  • All of the processing effects
  • The ability to visually and musically interconnect the generators and effects dynamically with a drag and drop interface
  • Dynamic control “pads” on screen for manipulating the characteristics and parameters of the sound generators and effects live
  • Widgets for graphical effects, and visualizations of different types associated with the music, so that the control screen itself can be part of the performance and projected to an audience

Perhaps all we really need is the interface screen to interconnect to existing software systems. But if this could be created I think it could take electronic music creation to both greater heights in the hands of professionals and down to the masses like me.

Of Ants and Men

I’ve had an ongoing real and internal struggle with a red ant hill in my back yard. In general, I use no non-organic pesticides and generally understand that insects are beneficial for gardens. I try to cultivate a position of tolerance even if there is a part of myself that would prefer not to be bothered by them.

Red ants are in a different category for me that also includes earwigs, centipedes and roaches. There is something about these bugs that make them hard for me to coexist with. I would even be willing to let these red ants do their thing, but they have set up shop in a highly trafficked footpath and I know they will grow a huge mound if I don’t stop them.

So first I tried one kind of ant trap: no effect. Then a second type: no effect. Then diatomaceous earth sprinkled on their mount: very little and temporary effect. In fact, it almost felt to me that this benign, organic solution was a kind of torture for them: perhaps the equivalent of napalm for humans? It seemed like a cruel solution.

I finally had to break down and buy the Amdro powder everyone seems to use. Now I know why: they ate it up like candy and now I see no activity at the mound. Success? It achieved the end and seemed to do it quickly and hopefully reasonably humanely.

Success, of a kind. But I am also saddened at having to use my overwhelming power and physical superiority to crush them in this way. I have no illusions that nature is anything but red in tooth and claw, but I still maintain a hope that we as humans with the ability to consciously evolve are moving in a more humane direction (most environmental evidence to the contrary).

And my ability to choose those ants’ fate so decisively makes me nervous. I am sure the ants had little understanding of what was happening to them or why. I envision them developing stories about the Dark Times, or attempting to explain their fate in terms of a vengeful god or some other cosmic or religious explanation. (Please excuse my anthropomorphism.)

The point is, how can we be sure there are not large and powerful creatures, equivalently large when humans are compared with ants, who out of some passing fancy or whim decide to do the equivalent of sprinkle some Amdro on our mound? Our entire universe could be something like a raindrop in these being’s universe: totally inconsequential. Our time and space scales could be radically different and so we have little knowledge of each other. They may have no idea they are effecting us at all at the same time we are experiencing horrible catastrophe at their hand.

More than the pointlessness of a totally random universe, I fear that our suffering may be caused by nothing more than such a cosmic oversight!

Sunday, March 01, 2009

Choosing engaged democracy and building the good life

I recently discovered that there is research to confirm my concerns about the media and the way it can isolate us into our own echo chambers that undermine societal dialogue and democratic cross-fertilization. Cass Sunstein, law professor at the University of Chicago, is the author of this research. He focuses on the internet in particular, but I would suggest his findings translate to cable television, talk radio and other highly segmented media outlets as well. 

The wonderful thing about the modern world is the explosion of new options, technologies, ideas and possibilities. Old assumptions drop away, leaving us with new opportunities to choose. As we interact with others from increasingly different cultural backgrounds and with new ideas, new ways of looking at things and new technologies that make new ways of working and living feasible, we discover choices we didn't know we had. This is really exciting...

BUT the downside is that the traditional practices that held cultures together, that provided people with meaning, and that structured lives in ways that fostered healthy lives and communities are also being questioned and abandoned. 

At this point in history, it is difficult to know how to separate the wheat from the chaff. What is the wheat? What is the chaff? In the past, cultures had developed their own notions of "wheat" and "chaff" that members of those cultures accepted and used. Perhaps they would change subtly over the years, but there were few major rifts or disruptions. And by and large this separating of the world into good and evil, what works and what doesn't work, etc. worked for the members of those cultures. 

However, I would suggest that these systems of meaning worked for those members of cultures unevenly, and that there was significant room for improvement for many, but in the absence of any alternatives that could be easily compared people just went along. Consider the inherent patriarchy and second class citizenship of women in most cultures prior to the women's liberation movement of this century and you have a sense of how a culture might have uneven benefits without rebellion. The internalized oppression of patriarchy was powerful because it was not perceived clearly, or the alternatives were not understood, and so it continued on. 

Of course, even in the republican democracy that was created for the first time through the Constitution of the United States, as great a leap forward as it was, African Americans (and women) were initially denied full participation. Due to a combination of overt oppression and internalized oppression, this system continued without change for many years.

So when we look at cultural conflict and change in the past, there are a few alternatives. 
  1. No change
  2. Secession and establishment of an alternative culture somewhere else
  3. Civil war between factions with a winner and a loser
  4. Compromise between disparate interests: This is what we have in the U.S.
  5. Transformation and transcendence: through dialogue and wisely engaged conflict, old divisions and compromises are transcended and new win-win alternatives are invented.
Over time as we have learned more about democracy, we have moved slowly down this list. I think right now we in the U.S. are somewhere about a 4.3 on this scale and the world as a whole is probably a weighted average of 3.6. I would like to see the whole world reach 5.0, and I will believe we will in time.

So to return to the "echo chamber" concept I have discussed above, in the past the echo chambers were formed primarily by discrete cultures that operated within their own systems of meaning and logic. Without deep and regular dialogue with "outsiders," cultures were essentially closed systems of meaning. People knew what society expected of them, knew what would happen if they didn't do what society wanted and society had ways of marginalizing the perspectives of others outside their culture so as to discourage defection or challenge. Whether these others were "infidels," "heathens," "the damned," "barbarians," "primitives," etc. cultures knew how to elevate their own views and attack and defend from contrary views. This ensured the continuation of those cultures.

But today the situation has been reversed. Traditional cultures have very little ability to protect their systems of meaning because the interaction of disparate cultures is unavoidable. (This is why we see a polarization into fundamentalists and the rest of us. Some people are trying to cling to what has been lost, and others are floating along with the rapid changes.) What we see emerging are new self-selected echo chambers forming fueled by radical individual choice and an ever expanding menu of media choices. This is the problem I referred to at the start of this post. 

So it is interesting how much things have changed! 

But the essential point of this post is that I think we need to examine our meta-choices, if you will, our choices about our choices. We need to recognize that we have the ability to choose not just as individual consumers of prepared content, but as co-creators of new systems of meaning. We can choose not just to watch certain media or consume this or that, but we can choose to create entirely new cultures! This will be appealing to many people because what what most people want is not unlimited choices throughout their day (which is overwhelming and unfulfilling), but instead for their daily experience to automatically and without effort to reflect their values and provide them with satisfaction. This can only happen if we can choose an entire culture to participate in.

1. First, we need to recognize the value of culture and comprehensive systems of meaning in creating healthy, happy lives.
 
2. Second, we need to begin thinking for ourselves about what cultures and systems of meaning might appeal to us, and articulating this for ourselves and others.

3. Third, we need to begin reaching out to others around the globe who share our cultural desires and vision.

4. Fourth, we need to get together with these others and decided to put these cultural ideas and principles into practice tangibly and experimentally.

5. Fifth, we need to record our experiences, both positive and negative, as clear-eyed as possible. We need to discuss these impressions with the others in the particular experiment we have chosen and see what collectively we have learned. We need to make adjustments and improvements to our experiment and then reevaluate periodically over time. 

6. Sixth, after a period of time, we need to take a break and engage with other people from other experiments and compare notes. What has worked for us? What has worked for them? As a result of this cross-fertilization, some people will have new ideas to bring back to their experiment, others will choose to abandon their experiment, and others will choose to join the other experiment.

In this way, we will invent new cultures that work better and better for more and more people. It will take time, but it is possible. The key is to recognize that we have choice at the level of culture itself.

The 60's were a time of social experimentation and society both benefited and was harmed by this experimentation. People were so intoxicated by their newly discovered freedom that they went wild. 

What was lacking was a scientific orientation and discipline to the experimentation (even if the experimentation itself is about something entirely different than science and discipline). A recognition that we don't have the answers ready-made and that we need to carefully create and invent them together was absent.

I am hoping that we are exiting the period of backlash to that experimentation and entering the next wave of experimentation. The difference this time is that we will experiment more maturely, more effectively, and more consciously. This will make all the difference in setting us on a course toward The Good Life and Heaven on Earth, one small considered step at a time.

Saturday, February 21, 2009

Faith and hope or fear and worry?

Obama campaigned on a platform of hope, which seems to have resonated with many people in the U.S. I know I was certainly inspired by his vision. But I am starting to get a feel for what is really asked of us at this point in history. The past 8 years were a period of intense fear mongering and that fear has permeated deep within the world psyche, especially in the U.S. Fear and worry are not things that get turned on or off like a light switch. They sink deeper and deeper, chilling our aspirations and dreams and casting a pall, turning vibrant colors into flat greys. Much like a hard winter, it takes a prolonged period of warmth for the deep chill to disappear. 

That is like what is happening in the U.S. right now. The fear mongering has ended, but it will take time for us to warm up and remember our hopes and dreams.  This will happen automatically gradually, but I also think we are called to choose hope, even when the evidence may not fully support it. This requires a cultivation of faith, which is easier said than done.

It is clear our global economy is struggling. Volcker says we may be facing something worse than the Great Depression, and that is very, very bad. This could be something to fear and worry about, but fear paralyzes and makes it harder to get to work making things better. That is why it is important to choose hope and cultivate faith. These are the things that will get us moving in the right direction most quickly, and the faster we work the less suffering there will be.

There is no going back to the old new economy. It is likely that oil is peaking or has peaked, and that will create a major drag on the economy. In addition, the economy of a few years ago was an addict's fever dream and had something to do with sustainability or reality. 

We must not try to recreate what has been lost. In reality, what has been lost was not that great. It was an unsustainble bubble. Mass materialism, conspicuous consumption, vapid self-indulgence. I say good riddance to that. BUT the realignment will be painful for many, unfortunately, but there is little way around it. What we do not need another bubble and crash. Trying to re-establish the production and consumption levels of the past is a mistake and will doom us to cleaning up another mess in a few years. We have to face up to reality.

As I mentioned above, there is really only one thing to do. Get busy remaking a sustainable economy and a more balanced future. I think we will see people living more localized existences, probably making less money but having more time for community, and using that time for community projects that benefit everyone participating. This will be a time of coming together to remake a system that works, which will be satisfying in itself. I suspect people will be growing more of their own food, and reconnecting with the joy of fresh, local food. We will see much more renewable energy and community-level and region-level self-sufficiency. Global trade and information sharing will continue, but only those things that are really needed and cannot be produced locally. 

The banks will probably need to be nationalized, because they were at the heart of the old economy and they are so insolvent with so many overinflated assets that no one wants to buy. We have way more financial capacity than we will need and many banks should fail, and a few of the best should be reformed and strengthened. We do need to restore lending to stimulate business investment, but we are already seeing that simply giving the banks more cash will not increase lending. This is another reason for nationalization. We need banks that have the national interest at heart and are willing to lend in those areas that are truly going to stimulate the economy. The stimulus will make a difference, but it will not be enough. We need to invest as much as possible as quickly as possible in the energy infrastructure of the future that will allow the economy to get started again. With an energy source secured, business will be able to begin to work again.

At a personal level, letting go of fear and worry and choosing hope and faith will be essential for preserving our happiness through this hard time. If we hold on to fear and worry, we will only end up torturing ourselves and those we care about. Fear will not make us more successful: it will slow us down and make us miserable in the interim. Choose hope. Have faith.